Weekly Market Report: Nifty50 and Sensex Outlook for Next Week

NIFTY50 and SENSEX bounce back over 1%; HDFC Bank, Reliance, ICICI Bank among top movers on friday

The Indian stock market experienced a volatile yet positive week ending June 20, 2025, with benchmark indices snapping a three-day losing streak on Friday. The BSE Sensex surged by 1,046.30 points (1.29%) to close at 82,408.17, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 319.15 points (1.29%) to settle at 25,112.40, marking the steepest single-day gain in over two weeks. The rally was driven by strong domestic institutional investor (DII) inflows, easing global oil prices, and optimism surrounding FTSE index inclusion. However, investor sentiment remained cautious due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential US tariff announcements impacting Indian exporters.

Key Highlights

• Monday, June 16: Markets rebounded sharply, with the Sensex up 677.55 points (0.84%) at 81,796.15 and Nifty up 227.9 points (0.92%) at 24,946.5, despite escalating Israel-Iran tensions. Value buying and gains in IT, metal, and realty sectors fueled the recovery.

  
  

• Tuesday, June 17: Indices closed lower, with Sensex down 212.85 points at 81,583.30 and Nifty down 93.10 points at 24,853.40, as profit booking and weak global cues weighed on sentiment.

  
  

• Wednesday, June 18: Markets ended marginally lower, with Sensex down 138.64 points at 81,445 and Nifty at 24,812, impacted by auto and finance sector losses and Middle East volatility.

  
  

• Thursday, June 19: A regular trading day with no significant index movement reported, but IPO activity and corporate actions kept markets active.

  
  

• Friday, June 20: A broad-based rally saw all sectors close in green, led by financials and telecom. The Nifty MidCap and SmallCap indices rose over 1% each, and MCX hit an all-time high, up 6% on product expansion hopes.

Sectoral Performance

• Financials: HDFC Bank gained attention with its subsidiary HDB Financial Services set to launch a ₹12,500 crore IPO on June 25, 2025, potentially the largest by an Indian NBFC.

  
  

• Pharma: Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories faced selling pressure due to concerns over US tariff impacts, while Natco Pharma rose after launching generic Pomalyst in the US.

  
  

• Consumer Goods: Nestlé India gained over 2% amid corporate developments and a board meeting scheduled for June 26 to consider a maiden bonus share issue.

  
  

• Energy: Suzlon Energy rose 3% after securing a 170 MW wind order from AMPIN Energy.

  
  

• Auto: Bajaj Auto announced a ₹210 dividend with an ex-date of June 20, 2025.

  
  

Corporate Actions and IPOs

• HDB Financial Services IPO: Set to open on June 25, with a grey market premium signaling a ₹100 premium.

  
  

• Arisinfra Solutions IPO: Subscribed 1.32 times by June 19, aiming to raise ₹499.60 crore.

  
  

• United Spirits: Acquired NAO Spirits for ₹130 crore to bolster its craft gin portfolio.

  
  

• Biocon: Raised ₹4,500 crore through a qualified institutional placement.

  
  

• GMM Pfaudler: Promoter group Millars Machinery acquired a 5.3% stake, signaling confidence.

Economic Indicators

• Rupee: Strengthened to close at 86.74 against the US dollar on June 20, supported by foreign investment inflows and positive domestic economic signals.

  
  

• Crude Oil: Prices dropped amid US-Iran tensions, with Trump expected to decide on intervention within two weeks, impacting oil price volatility.

  
  

• Gold and Silver: Gold prices have risen 3% in June 2025, on track for a sixth consecutive month of gains, driven by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. Silver hit a 13-year high above $36 per troy ounce, up over 20% year-to-date, driven by industrial demand (e.g., solar panels) and safe-haven buying.

Global and Geopolitical Factors

• US Markets: Closed for Juneteenth on June 19, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining rates at 4.25%–4.50%, signaling a data-dependent stance.

  
  

• Middle East Tensions: The US delayed immediate military action in the Israel-Iran conflict, providing temporary relief to global markets, though risks persisted.

  
  

• Gift Nifty: Traded flat at 24,793 on June 20, indicating a cautious start for Friday’s session.

  
  

Market Sentiment

1.Positive Factors:

• DII Inflows: Strong DII buying drove Sensex (+1,046.30, 82,408.17) and Nifty (+319.15, 25,112.40) rally on June 20.

• Corporate Actions: HDB Financial Services IPO (June 25), Nestlé India’s bonus share plan, and Suzlon’s 170 MW order boosted confidence.

• Economic Stability: Rupee at 86.74 vs USD; easing oil prices supported sentiment.

• Sectoral Gains: Financials, telecom, and consumer goods led; midcap/smallcap indices up >1%.

  
  

2.Negative Factors:

• Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions (Israel-Iran) created uncertainty.

• FII Outflows: FIIs sold ₹2,287.69 crore (June 16) amid US tariff fears.

• Profit Booking: Mid-week declines (June 17–18) after Nifty’s 25,300 peak.

• Global Cues: Flat Gift Nifty (24,793); US Fed rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%.

Outlook for Next Week

Investors will focus on:

• Nifty50 Outlook: The Nifty 50 is expected to test resistance at 25,200 and then 25,500, supported by strong DII inflows and positive global cues. However, failure to breach 25,200-240 zone may lead to profit booking, with support at 24,800–24,900. Volatility is likely due to upcoming WPI inflation data and global tariff concerns.

  
  

• Bank Nifty Outlook: Bank Nifty, closing at 56,252.85 on June 20, is poised for cautious optimism, driven by the HDB Financial Services IPO and robust banking sector fundamentals. Resistance is seen at 56,500 and then 56,800–57,000, with support at 56,000 and then 55,500-55,400. Private banks like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank may lead gains.

  
  

• Sensex Outlook: The Sensex is likely to face resistance at 82,750–83,000, with support at 81,600 and then 81,200. Positive momentum from financials and consumer goods, coupled with Nestlé India’s bonus share announcement, could drive gains, though geopolitical risks may cap upside.

  
  

• Other Key Factors: Investors will monitor Nestlé India’s board meeting on June 26 for bonus share consideration, HDB Financial Services IPO opening on June 25, macroeconomic releases like WPI inflation data, and global cues, including US tariff decisions and Middle East developments.

Conclusion: While the market ended the week on a strong note, sentiment is tempered by external risks. Investors are likely to adopt a selective approach, favoring financials, consumer goods, and energy, while remaining wary of export-heavy sectors like pharma and IT.

Disclaimer: This outlook is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always consult a financial advisor before trading